VIACS Logo

Share your weather & snow obs:

Observations from our users are an important part of our forecasting. You can help by reporting snow and weather conditions, no matter how much experience you have. Keep a log on your smartphone, while you're out, and email us at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com when you get home. 

More information on the 'Get Involved' page.

Sponsors

    





[ Victoria | Nanaimo ]


 

Stay Informed

Follow the Bulletin on Twitter and get updates as soon as they are posted!

Traveling in the Backcountry? Send us your observations and become eligible for the Blue Touque "Tip of the Month" prize.

If you have any information about conditions or activity in the back country or If you have observed avalanche activity or been involved in an avalanche, please send your obeservations to us at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com. Each month we'll pick the best contribution to win a prize from the Blue Toque Sport Swap.

Monday December 11, 2017

December 10, 2017 at 08:33PM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday December 13th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Alpine LOW LOW LOW
Treeline LOW LOW LOW
Below Treeline LOW LOW LOW

 

Confidence: High - Continued stable weather pattern.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet -  Small loose wet avalanches are possible on steep sunny slopes in the alpine and treeline elevations, particularly in the afternoon.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Spring-like conditions continue to persist. Assess sunny slopes especially once the snow becomes moist or wet. Small loose wet avalanches have the potential for high consequences when travelling above cliffs or terrain traps. Watch for early season hazards such as exposed creeks, stumps, and tree wells especially below treeline.

Past Weather: Vancouver Island has seen a very stable weather pattern with little to no precipitation, light to moderate SE through SW winds and temperatures ranging from -5oC to +11oCFreezing levels have been above the highest of the peaks on the Island for the majority of the time.

Avalanche Summary: No new avalanches observed over the weekend. Skiing on steep unsupported features did not produce any result.

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Thin unsupportive sun crust on solar aspects at all elevation in the morning, becoming moist quickly. In shaded areas snow remains cold.

Upper - Well settled and bonding well to rain crusts that were formed and buried in November.

Mid - Well settled crust complex.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: A short lived weak disturbance in the entrenched ridge of high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday will produce increased cloud cover and minimal precipitation, likely in the form of rain or wet flurries. Temperatures and freezing levels will remain high and winds will be light from southerly directions to calm. Continued temperature inversion with low level clouds and fog near the ocean.

Mon - A trace of precipitationWinds light to moderate SE

Freezing levels of 1800-3800 m

Tue - 0-3 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate SW                      

Freezing levels of 1450-2500 m

Wed - A trace of precipitation.  Winds light variable to calm                                          

Freezing levels of 570-3600 m

 

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

Friday December 8th, 2017

December 7, 2017 at 09:17PM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday December 10th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Friday Saturday Sunday
Alpine MODERATE MODERATE MODERATE
Treeline LOW LOW LOW
Below Treeline LOW LOW LOW

 

Confidence: Moderate - Stable weather pattern, minimal alpine observations.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet -  Continued high temperatures and freezing levels combined with periods of light rain are likely/very likely to produce avalanches from small to large especially on solar aspects at all elevations.   

Travel/Terrain Advice: Spring-like conditions should persist through the forecast period. Avoid sunny slopes especially once the snow becomes moist or wet. Small loose wet avalanches have the potential for high consequences when travelling above cliffs or terrain traps. Watch for early season hazards such as exposed creeks, stumps, and tree wells especially below treeline.

Past Weather: Vancouver Island has seen a very stable weather pattern with little to no precipitation, light to moderate SE winds and temperatures ranging from -4oC to +12oCFreezing levels have been above the highest of the peaks of the Island for the majority of the time.

Avalanche Summary: A few small loose wet avalanches at treeline and below treeline on exposed solar aspects. Small pinwheels forming.

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Thin unsupportive melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevation in the morning, becoming moist in the afternoon. In shaded areas snow remains cold.

Upper - Snow remains cold and supportive on all but the most solar of aspects at all elevations. Some light wind transport from the dominant SE winds at treeline and alpine forming small drifts and exposing crust on windward slopes.

Mid - Well settled crust complex.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: Light precipitation for the weekend likely in the form of rain for all but the highest elevations. Temperatures and freezing levels will remain high with potential freezing levels of up to 3600 m with the persistent high pressure system. Temperature inversion with low level clouds and morning fog in coastal sections.

Fri - No new snowWinds light to moderate S-SE                                                  

Freezing level to 1200-3500 m

Sat - 1-7 mm of precipitation. Winds moderate SE                      

Freezing level to 950-3100 m

Sun - 0-5 mm of precipitation.  Winds light to moderate SE                                           

Freezing level to 2500-3700 m

 

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

December 6th, 2017

December 5, 2017 at 05:41PM

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday December 8th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

 

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
 
Outlook Wednesday Thursday Friday
Alpine CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Treeline CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline MODERATE MODERATE MODERATE

 

Confidence: Moderate - no alpine snow pack observations and most obersvations limited to Eastern Central Vancouver Island.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet- Rising temperatures and freezing levels are likely/very likely to produce avalanches from small to large, especially on solar aspects at all elevations.   

Wet Slab- Recent storm snow and wind loaded areas overlying the upper rain crust are likely to produce wet slab avalanches with the forecasted warming.  These avalanches have the potential to be large/very large in the upper treeline to alpine. 

Travel/Terrain Advice: Very high temperatures and freezing levels and no overnight freezing of upper snow pack will result in very moist to wet snow that provides little support to travelers. Be aware that even small loose wet avalanches can push one into or over terrain traps such as depressions, cliffs, and trees. There is potential for large to very large avalanches starting in treeline and alpine terrain to impact below treeline elevations. Use caution when crossing large avalanche paths in all elevations. Watch for early season hazards such as exposed creeks, stumps, and tree wells especially below treeline.

Past Weather: Vancouver Island has seen little to no precipitation, light to moderate SW through SE winds and temperatures ranging from -7oC to +6oC. Freezing levels across the forecast region have ranged from sea level to 2300 m.   

Avalanche Summary: Loose wet avalanches at treeline and below treeline on exposed solar aspects with pinwheeling and tree bombs.

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Thin unsupportive melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevation, in some shaded areas snow remains cold

Upper - Wind loaded pockets bonding moderately to an upper crust on NW-NE aspects at treeline and alpine. Scoured and pressed surface on windward slopes exposing the crust

Mid - Well settled crust complex

Lower - Well settled

Weather Forecast: Temperatures and freezing levels will remain high with potential freezing levels of up to 3600 m with the persistent high pressure system. Expect a temperature inversion for the duration of the forecast period with low level clouds and morning fog near the ocean.

Wed - No new snowWinds light SE                                                  

Freezing level to 2800-3600 m

Thur - No new snow. Winds light to moderate SE                      

Freezing level to 2500-3600 m

Fri - No new snow.  Winds light to moderate SE                                                    

Freezing level to 1200-3600 m

 

Prepared by Bill Phipps

View older posts »

Important Notice

This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope.

Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.