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Friday 27 April, 2012.

Date Issued April 27, 2012 at 08:23AM

It's spring time. That means it's the time when the Vancouver Island avalanche bulletin ceases three times weekly bulletins.

Many thanks to all the great sponsors who have kept this bulletin going. If you appreciate the bulletin then please go to our sponsors page and pass your appreciations on to these fine community members that make it possible. Many thanks also to the board of the Vancouver Island Avalanche Centre and to all who volunteer.

If you are interested in becoming a sponsor of the bulletin please contact us at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com.

We will not issue further bulletins this spring unless we see a heightened hazard that compels us to issue an up date or warning. If you are planning spring trips do check back here to see if we have issued any updates or warnings and as always plan your trips carefully.

Below is some general advice for traveling in avalanche terrain at this time of year:

Spring avalanche danger patterns are generally quite predictable in that they relate largely to day time warming from rise in temperature and direct sun light.  Danger is generally lower early in the day when temperatures are cool, the sun is not yet affecting slopes or cornices above, and a strong supportive melt-freeze crust exists. Danger increases as temperatures rise, solar radiation intensifies, and surface snow becomes wet or slushy. If wet snow does not freeze overnight or if it's raining, hazard can be up at any time of day.


Watch for snow becoming wet and slushy to more than about 5cm depth, pinwheeling, snowballing and small loose, wet snow point releases out of steep terrain and at rock outcrops. When you see these signs be prepared to change your planned route to a shadier aspect which has not yet melted or if that is not available stay out of avalanche terrain. Remember that wet snow avalanches can occur on lower angled slopes of 25 degrees or less.


Always keep an eye on what is above you. There are still many big cornices in the island mountains that are primed to fail as temperatures rise. These very heavy pieces of snow are a powerful hazard in their own right but they can also trigger an avalanche even if the place that you are lower on the slope feels cool at the time.

There is still snow in the forecast. When it does snow look for amounts of 20 to 30cm or more and be aware that this snow may not bond well initially to underlying crusts. Also watch for wind transporting new snow and creating slabs of greater depth in the lees and in cross loaded features.

While getting out early is generally the rule of thumb it is worth considering that the snow tends to be hard first thing in the day and that exposure on steep slopes could result in nasty falls on hard snow which could be especially dangerous if there are consequences below. Remember that terrain traps such as cliffs and trees are a danger not only in avalanches!

If you are tripping in the island alps this spring please send your observations to us at forecaster@islandavalanchebulletin.com.

The Canadian Avalanche Centre has some good general advice for travel at this time of year with links to educational tools if you go HERE.

Wednesday, April25. 2012

Date Issued April 24, 2012 at 09:45PM

Valid until Friday 27th April 2012.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

 

OutlookWEDNESDAYTHURSDAYFRIDAY
Alpine
HIGH CONSIDERABLE
MODERATE
Treeline HIGH
CONSIDERABLE
MODERATE
Below Treeline CONSIDERABLE
MODERATE
LOW

Confidence: Fair. Uncertainty with weather models for Friday.

Past Weather: Over the last 3 days we have seen 5-10mm of precipitation in the Island Mountains. Temperatures at Treeline and into the alpine were as high as +7 degrees on Sunday and Monday

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

New Storm snow- An average of 30-40cms of new snow is possible in the high alpine throughout the Island Mountains. With this snow and wind new wind slabs will be forming on all lee features. This new load will also bury an isothermal layer that is now seeing more and more load on it.

Wet Snow Avalanches- Potentially high freezing levels will bring a significant amount of rain to the snowpack.  With this rain wet, isothermal snow will avalanche easily. The likely hood of deeper instabilities failing significantly increases under these conditions. 

Cornices- Cornice failures causing large avalanches have been observed across the Straight of Georgia. Give them a healthy respect and stay out from their runout zones.

Weather Outlook:

Wednesday: An intense pacific low will hit land Tuesday night bringing with it up to 40mm of precipitation to the Western Ranges and approx. 20mm to the Eastern side. Freezing levels will sit around 1400m. Strong Southerly winds will accompany the rain and snow.
Thursday: Rain and snow tapering off with freezing levels hovering around 1200m. Winds lightening from the South West.
Friday: More light Rain and snow at higher elevations in the forecast. Conflicting weather models are suspect for Friday.

Avalanche Activity:

No observations reported

Snowpack:

Our spring snowpack is taking a turn for the worse with all of the recent precipitation, warm temperatures in the alpine and now with the forecasted storm for Wednesday. Instabilities are not getting a chance to settle out.  The forecasted rain will add additional load to the upper snowpack and contribute to an already isothermal (snow at zero degrees) snow condition.  Snow at high elevations will be sitting on a wet surface and although it may initially bond well, additional loading with snow and wind to this warmer wet layer will make for a complicated hazard to deal with.

Travel Advisory:

Go fishing. Travel in the mountains is not advised during the storm on Wednesday as the potential for large wet avalanches is high.  If you must go (water) skiing stick to low angle terrain avoiding avalanche runouts and cornice exposure.

Prepared by Cliff Umpleby

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Date Issued April 21, 2012 at 08:15PM

Valid until Tuesday 1st of May 2012.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

 

OutlookSUNDAYMONDAYTUESDAY
Alpine
CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE
MODERATE
Treeline CONSIDERABLE
CONSIDERABLE
MODERATE
Below Treeline MODERATE
MODERATE
LOW

Confidence: Fair. Uncertainty on the amount of new precipitation especially in the form of rain as this will have a significant effect on our snowpack. 

Past Weather: Over the last 3 days we have seen at most 10mm of precipitation in the Island Mountains. Freezing levels to 1400m.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

New Storm snow- New, thin wind slabs will form with the onset of the next weather system.  These slabs will bond poorly to old crusts especially when freezing levels rise and rain follows the snow.

Wet Snow Avalanches- Rain to Tree line elevations and potentially to the mountain tops will create an instability within the new snow and the upper snowpack. On Sunday afternoon the freezing levels are forecasted to rise to as high as 2400m. This combined with new rain will result in a potentially unstable upper pack due to isothermal conditions. Caution is advised as the freezing levels rise and the rain continues.

Cornices- With high forecasted freezing levels and rain in the forecast all bets are off for cornices staying put.  Exercise  extreme caution under cornices and be aware that with a potentially isothermal snowpack below, the likelihood of large avalanches being triggered is high.

Weather Outlook:

Sunday: 5-10mm of precipitation on Saturday night into Sunday. Strong SW winds and freezing levels to 2500m
Monday: Light rain and high freezing levels will prevail. Continued strong SW winds
Tuesday: Mainly dry with sun and cloud. Freezing levels still hovering around the 2200-2400m elevations

Avalanche Activity:

None observed

Snowpack:

A variety of old surfaces from sun crusts to some cold snow on the North aspects that was just hanging on is about to be buried by 5-10cms of new snow.  Of major concern is the onset of rain following the snow and freezing levels going up to as high as 2500m.  The probability of isothermal snow conditions is high and with this comes an unstable upper snowpack.  As rain and warm temps penetrate further into the snowpack, deeper weak layers that were dormant have the potential to wake up.  Spring is the season for deep, climax avalanches and travel should reflect this hazard.

Travel Advisory:

Be aware of terrain above you over the next few days. Spring avalanches are generally large and destructive and can travel full path. Ensure you are not lingering in avalanche paths and runout zones. Be diligent in alpine terrain in lee and wind exposed areas.

Prepared by Cliff Umpleby

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Important Notice

This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope.

Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.