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Friday 27 January, 2012
There are a few tickets still available for the Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin. The event will sell out this year again so don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary party with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.
Valid Until: Saturday 28 January, 2012.
| Outlook | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine |
CONSIDERABLE |
CONSIDERABLE | HIGH |
| Treeline | CONSIDERABLE | MODERATE | HIGH |
| Below Treeline | LOW | LOW | CONSIDERABLE |
Confidence: Fair. Uncertainty about intensity, timing and freezing levels of coming system. If this system comes in sooner on Saturday, Hazard levels will rise earlier. Watch freezing levels and be aware that when precipitation comes as snow load increases significantly with wind transport.
Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)
Wind Slab - Strong to very strong winds
have created widespread and touchy wind slabs mostly on east through
north west aspects from our recent large storms. These slabs remain sensitive to human trigger in the
alpine and at tree line and could produce large avalanches particularly in the alpine where slabs are stiff. With wind changing direction to west and north
west on Thursday new wind slab has formed in the alpine and at tree line on
east through south east aspects. More new wind slabs will form in the alpine and possibly at tree line (depending on how high freezing levels rise) from moderate to strong west to south west winds on Saturday and Sunday.
Storm Slab - Variations in temperature during the past storms have resulted in weaknesses within the storm snow which remain triggerable by humans on all aspects at tree line and in the alpine. New storm slab will form with the coming system on Saturday/Sunday in the alpine and at tree line on all aspects.
Cornices - Great quantities of snow and very strong winds have built cornices which are a hazard in their own right but can also act as very heavy triggers for large avalanches.
Weather:
The island Alps received from 125 to 165cm of snow since Sunday. The snow came with winds that exceeded 100kph at times and came from the SW through to SE. Freezing levels varied but stayed mostly at or below 1000m for the most part except for a rise to tree line for about four hours on Tuesday evening. A ridge of high pressure has shifted winds around to the NW and dropped temperatures since Thursday. The outlook is as follows:
Friday: Mix of sun and cloud. Trace amounts of snow. Moderate west to south westerly winds, freezing levels around 500m.
Saturday: Our next system approaches starting later in the day and giving about 30mm of water by midnight. This will come either as rain or as snow depending on elevations and how high freezing levels rise from 500m to possibly as high as 1800m overnight. Moderate to strong SW winds.
Sunday: 5-35mm of precipitation (most on the west island, least on the north) will come as rain or snow depending on elevation and rate of freezing level drop from as high as 1800m back down to 800-1200m. MOderate to strong west to south west winds.
Snow Pack:
Great
quantities of new snow and very strong winds have created wind slab
mostly on East through to Northwest aspects. Variations in temperature
during the storms have created weaknesses within the storm snow. These
remained touchy in tests on Wednesday and Thursday delivering easy results. A crust
was formed when freezing levels rose to tree line on Tuesday evening. With cold temperatures since, this crust has thickened to support a skier by Friday. At tree line the crust
is less than 1cm thick and it does not reach to the alpine. There is 10-25cm of new snow on top of this crust depending on location. This snow is not bonding well to the crust and has been moved by north and north west wind to create new wind slabs on south to south east aspects. The mid and lower pack are
strong.
Avalanche Activity:
A widespread natural avalanche cycle during the past storms with avalanches to size two observed.
Travel Advisory:
In the alpine and at tree line be aware of deep and stiff winds slabs which are sensitive to the load of a human. Stay out of wind affected areas and be aware of what is above you. Winds shifting to west and north west on Thursday have also created new wind slab on east through south east aspects. Also be aware that even where there is not wind slab, instabilities exist withing the storm snow which remain triggerable by humans. Sticking to lower angled and supported terrain in the alpine and at tree line is recommended. Be aware that cornices are a hazard in their own right but can also act as very heavy triggers for large avalanches. Cornice failure is very difficult to predict. Give them a wide berth. Watch the approach of our next system on Saturday. If it arrives earlier than forecast hazard levels will rise sooner. New wind and storm slab will form with this system. Stay out of avalanche terrain on Sunday.
Prepared by Jan Neuspiel
Thursday 26 January, 2012.
There are a few tickets still available for the Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin. The event will sell out this year again so don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary party with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.
Valid Until: Saturday 28 January, 2012.
| Outlook | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine |
CONSIDERABLE |
CONSIDERABLE | CONSIDERABLE |
| Treeline | CONSIDERABLE | CONSIDERABLE | MODERATE |
| Below Treeline | LOW | LOW | LOW |
Confidence: Fair. Uncertainty about intensity, timing and freezing levels of coming system. If this system comes in sooner on Saturday, Hazard levels will rise earlier.
Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)
Wind Slab - Strong to very strong winds have created widespread and touchy wind slabs mostly on east through north west aspects. These slabs remain sensitive to human trigger in the alpine and at tree line. With wind changing direction to west and north west on Thursday new wind slab may form in the alpine in particular on east through south east aspects.
Storm Slab - Variations in temperature during the storms have resulted in weaknesses within the storm snow which remain triggerable by humans on all aspects at tree line and in the alpine.
Cornices - Great quantities of snow and very strong winds have built cornices which are a hazard in their own right but can also act as very heavy triggers for large avalanches.
Weather:
The island Alps received from 125 to 140cm of snow since Sunday. The snow came with winds that exceeded 100kph at times and came from the SW through to SE. Freezing levels varied but stayed mostly at or below 1000m for the most part except for a rise to tree line for about four hours on Tuesday evening. The outlook is as follows:
Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of snow in some areas, moderate northwest and west winds, freezing level surface to 600m.
Friday: Mix of sun and cloud, 5 to 15cm of snow (greatest amounts west island), moderate westerly winds, freezing levels surface to 900m.
Saturday: Our next system approaches starting later in the day and giving 20-40cm of snow by midnight (greater amounts on west island), moderate to strong SW winds, freezing level up to 900m.
Snow Pack:
Great quantities of new snow and very strong winds have created wind slab mostly on East through to Northwest aspects. Variations in temperature during the storms have created weaknesses within the storm snow. These remained touchy in tests on Wednesday delivering easy results. A crust was formed when freezing levels rose to tree line on Tuesday evening. At 1000m this crust supports skis but not a foot. At tree line the crust is less than 1cm thick and it does not reach to the alpine. There is 5-10cm of new snow on top of this crust. The mid and lower pack are strong.
Avalanche Activity:
A widespread natural avalanche cycle during the storm with avalanches to size two observed.
Travel Advisory:
In the alpine and at tree line be aware of deep and stiff winds slabs which are sensitive to the load of a human. Stay out of wind affected areas and be aware of what is above you. Winds shifting to west and north west on Thursday will also create new wind slab on east through south east aspects. Also be aware that even where there is not wind slab, instabilities exist withing the storm snow which remain triggerable by humans. Sticking to lower angled and supported terrain in the alpine and at tree line is recommended. Be aware that cornices are a hazard in their own right but can also act as very heavy triggers for large avalanches. Cornice failure is very difficult to predict. Give them a wide berth. Watch the approach of our next system on Saturday. If it arrives earlier than forecast hazard levels will rise sooner.
Prepared by Jan Neuspiel
Sunday 22 January, 2012.
Tickets are on sale now for the Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin. The event sells out every year so don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary event with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.
Valid Until: Wednesday 25 January, 2012.
| Outlook | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine |
HIGH |
HIGH | HIGH |
| Treeline | HIGH |
HIGH |
HIGH |
| Below Treeline | CONSIDERABLE | CONSIDERABLE | CONSIDERABLE |
Confidence: Fair. Uncertainty about intensity of coming systems and freezing levels later in the forecast.
Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)
Storm Slab - With significant snowfall amounts and variations in temperature in the forecast, weaknesses will exist within the recent, current and forecast storm snow. Storm slab avalanches will be happening at all elevations and on all aspects.
Wind Slab - Strong to very strong winds have created widespread and touchy, deep wind slabs. Continued snow and strong winds will form yet more wind slabs at tree line and above and particularly from SE to NW aspects.
Weather:
Two storms, one on Friday and a second which started Sunday and continues at time of writing (Sunday afternoon) have delivered from 25cm to over a metre of snow to the Island Alps (least on the north island, most on the west coast). Freezing levels rose to around 1400m during the first storm with strong winds mostly from the SW. The second storm has seen cooler temperatures so far with freezing levels reaching no more than about 300m and very strong winds from the SE shifting to SW. The outlook is as follows:
Remainder of Sunday: 5-15cm more snow. Strong SW winds. Freeing level to around 800m.
Monday: 20 to 40cm snow. Strong SW winds. Freezing level around 900m.
Tuesday: 30 to 60 cm snow. Strong SW winds. Freezing levels to 1500m.
Wednesday: 20 to 25 cm snow. Strong SW winds. Freezing levels to 1500m
Snow Pack:
Wind slab has formed and continues to form in the alpine and at
tree line from strong winds mostly from SE to SW. These slabs will be deep and triggering naturally. Weaknesses deeper in the snow pack (surface hoar in places, thin crust at tree line and lower density, colder snow from earlier in the first storm Friday) will have been the failure plane in avalanches over the week end and will continue to fail and/or be pressed down by the coming load.The mid and lower pack are strong.
Avalanche Activity:
A natural avalanche cycle is certain to be occurring.
Travel Advisory:
When hazard is this high the best way to avoid being caught in an avalanche is to stay out of avalanche terrain. Stick to low angled and well forested areas and stay away from wind effected areas. Avoid steep, open terrain below tree line. Be aware of hazard overhead from avalanche paths and cornices.
Prepared by Jan Neuspiel
Important Notice
This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.
This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope.
Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.
