Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Valid until March 28th.

UP DATE March 28th AM !

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Below Treeline (BTL) areas of the Island have low snow amounts, especially solar aspects.

Confidence: Change in weather forecast and conditions Saturday night promoted  this updated forecast to CONSIDERABLE, local areas may spike to HIGH hazard overnight if snow amounts exceed 25 cm and winds continue over 35 K.

Main Concerns:

• Storm Snow in Tree Line and Alpine
• Wind Slab NW through NE Aspects Alpine and Treeline
• Snow packs  could slide to deeper crusts with cornice or snow machine size triggers.

Weather:

Since the weekend we have had mixed rain and snow and unsettled weather.  Note the Western areas received up to 63 mm precipitation while the East and North saw less than 15 mm. Temperatures have been warmer on the N. Island mostly above zero and as high as +11 while the West and East Island saw one warm spike to plus 4 and otherwise hovering just below or above 0. Winds were steady enough to keep the surfaces fairly cool except solar aspects which did see one day of sun.

A somewhat intense storm has dug in overnight Saturday on Vancouver Island. Precipitation in form of snow over 1000 m for East and North Island, with up to 25 mm now expected by Sunday AM.  Winds  moderate to strong  from the SE or  S.  Freezing Levels dropping to near 1000m Sunday and lower except South Western Island which is a bit warmer and could rain to 1500m and change to snow by AM and dropping on Sunday to as low as 500 m for the Island with an additional 10 to 15 mm expected.

Avalanche Activity:

None reported. Expect natural avalanche cycle over night into Sunday 

Snowpack:

New storm snow and localized wind slab.  The storm is forecast Sunday AM is to cool as it goes which could improve skiing Sunday and reduce slab build up somewhat, except for wind slab development.  Warm temps and rain and snow have kept us wishing for more surface refreezing. Rain load has been considerable in the West (63 mm) while the East and North areas absorbed less than 20 mm during the week. Settlement continues at higher elevations and most shears are Moderate to Hard. Despite the Moderate to Low hazard a prolonged thaw is not to be trusted.  Facet crust layers may be saturated at higher elevations and in thinner snow packs East and West aspects.

Terrain Discussion: Caution on terrain steeper than 35 degrees and expected localized wind slab near ridge tops and terrain breaks top and cross loaded features.

Travel Advisory:  Wide spread Storm snow and localized  wind slab in lee aspects will be fresh on Sunday. Human triggering is Possible to Probable in certain terrain. Caution is still advised with previous warming and thaw. Cornice or over angle terrain could still react, this could trigger deeper instabilities. 

Outlook:

Friday looks decent with some clear skies in the PM and relative coolness, however increasing unsettled weather with showers moves in for Saturday also combined with higher freezing levels during the day.  Sunday continues cloudy with some chance of showers or flurries and gradual cooling. Winds are expected from the SW switching to W NW over nights Light to Moderate.