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Monday, Feb 22
Valid Until: Wednesday, Feb 24, 2010
DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
| Outlook | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine | CONSIDERABLE |
CONSIDERABLE |
HIGH |
| Treeline | MODERATE |
MODERATE |
CONSIDERABLE |
| Below Treeline | LOW |
LOW | MODERATE |
Confidence: Fair. Sporadic observations of our 2 main persistent layers of concern and amounts of forecasted precipitation on Wednesday. Expect danger levels to drop one rating if our forecasted precip. comes in at lower amounts.
Main Concerns:
- New surface hoar layer in sheltered areas at Treeline and above being buried on Wednesday.
- 2 buried surface hoar layers with wind slab above them in localized areas
- Avalanche activity on solar aspects
Weather:
Sunny weather until Tuesday then snow expected with the next frontal system. Expect higher accumulation amounts of up to 20 cms in the Myra Region and lower amounts from Mt. Cain down the East side of the Island. High freezing levels up to 2300m will prevail until Monday night and will drop with the approach on the next system. As this front approaches expect freezing levels to drop to around the 1100m elevation
Avalanche Activity:
Natural activity on solar aspects has been observed.
Snowpack:
With the high freezing levels on Monday expect solar activity on the sunny aspects. Natural solar triggered avalanches have been observed on the southerly aspects. In areas in the alpine there is a new layer of surface hoar that has been laid down and will become reactive when buried with new snow. Expect to find this in localized sheltered areas in the alpine and at Treeline. Our buried surface hoar layers of concern are mostly an issue in the alpine with reports of the deepest one being up to 90cms deep. This layer is localized and can be expected to be found in sheltered lee areas facing Norh. Caution should still be taken with regard to this layer as ski triggering is still possible in the right terrain. Once the current surface hoar layer is buried expect this to become reactive quickly and sensitive to ski traffic.
Terrain Discussion:
Caution in solar aspects with day time heating. Loaded features in areas where the old surface hoar exists is still a concern. Use conservative terrain choices in the alpine. On Wednesday morning expect to see natural activity with the new snow overlying this layer. Ski triggering will be likely on this interface.
Outlook:
Some snow finally to the mountains