Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Confidence: Good Except Wednesday's weather as models disagree about sky cover and precipitation; some say clear while others say showers with more for the North Island.

Main Concerns:

• High temperatures and or sun causing wet sloughs or surface/slides (could act as natural triggers)
• Cornice failures and very steep terrain shedding snow.
• Week old wind slabs at higher elevations.

Weather:

The Island Alps have received only light snow or rain over the weekend, while variable light to moderate winds have transported very little snow due to the surface conditions, the freezing levels were very high on Friday and cooled off as the weekend progressed.

The outlook is for a unstable showery weather until Wednesday when up to 10mm or less may arrive in the form of snow above 1400m. Sunny breaks or full sun are possible on Tuesday but diminish Wednesday. Freezing levels will fluctuate from day to night, freezing over night and rising to 1500 m to 2000 m during the days. Winds are to switch from North or North West Monday to generally Light South for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Activity:

None reported other than pin wheels and surface instabilities generally below 1500 m or  higher on Solar aspects. Last week's wet slide debris and cornice chunks from generally North Aspects were viewed, some did run into the low track or upper run outs.

Snowpack:

The snow pack has settled and generally stabilized but sub surface layers remain wet and warm at lower elevations and on Solar aspects.  Some Rime and trace amounts of new snow have added to the temperature crust on most surfaces below 1500 m.  Beware of old wind slabs in the higher alpine which may react to larger loads or triggers in steeper or unsupported terrain. Also beware that thin scoured and partly cross loaded slopes (West and East aspects) still have a crust facet structure that shears and collapses. The warming has taken a lot of the brittleness out of the upper shears and slabs but at higher elevations  and colder aspects this may not be the case thus keeping some of the week old wind slabs somewhat reative to human triggering.

Travel advisory:

Stay out from under large cornices and avoid gullies during the warmer day time periods.  At higher elevations avoid unsupported and steeper terrain especially in the wind zone lee.  Lower elevations while below threshold are going isothermal (snow at 0 degrees and rotten) and may be poor for travel or covering holes creeks and such. Get out early and enjoy spring like conditions on lower angle terrain in the warmer portion of the day.

Outlook:

Sun, showers, colder nights and above freezing days are expected. Wednesday may bring showers, light snow or sun only the weatherperson knows for sure. Winds are to switch from North or North West Monday to generally Light (10 to 20 K) South for Tuesday and Wednesday.