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Older Posts
Monday March 29th 2010
Valid Until: Wednesday 31st March.
DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)
| Outlook | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine | HIGH |
CONSIDERABLE |
CONSIDERABLE |
| Treeline | HIGH |
MODERATE |
MODERATE |
| Below Treeline | CONSIDERABLE |
MODERATE |
LOW |
Confidence: Good
Main Concerns:
- 48 hour Storm snow (35 TO 55 CM)
- Wind slabs at and above Tree Line
- Fresh Cornice development
Weather:
Friday and Saturday saw freezing nights and just over freezing days with a few flurries or wet snow showers, except the west Isle area which saw 20 - 30mm rain/snow with + temps. Saturday night The Island Alps received a blast of winter. 15 to 25 cm snow with high winds and Freezing Levels at or around 1100 m. Flurries continued Sunday and by Sunday night the next system hit the Coast bringing more snow and high winds. Storm snow by Monday 40 to 60 cm.
The outlook is for lighter snow Tuesday 15 cm to 50 cm. By Wednesday the snow lets off to 5 cm or less it cools to 600m or lower. Winds Lighter W SW except during snow showers, and lighter again Wednesday WNW.
Avalanche Activity:
SC size 1.5 crossloaded wind slab 10 to 25 cm deep 40 degree convex roll facing West. ran into trees. AC produced out of steeper ground a few small size 2 s and cornice pieces. Lots of skier slope use on steep ground in new snow with no sluffing to speak of.
Snowpack:
New storm snow (55 cm ) and wind slabs are bonding pretty well over the older snow and crusts. A layer of plates is producing shears above the crusts in some places. Below our current late March snow the Mid March snow and old wind slabs sit on older crusts down 30 to 120cm down. Most of these layers melted and refroze together during rain events consolidating the upper pack. At higher elevations some of the poor bonds in the Old crust mid March snow are worth thinking about, especially in the thinner scoured and cross loaded Easterly or SW aspects where weak crusts with facets may still linger.
Terrain Advisory: Travel in COMPLEX avalanche terrain is not recommended. Travel below large overhanging cornices and on or under very steep loaded slopes is not advised.
Travel advisory:
Human Triggering is Probable to Possible. Isolated new snow instabilities exist and would worsen with warming or sun. Localized Wind Slab on Lee and Cross-loaded slopes exist on East through North through W aspects at and above Tree Line. Wide spread Cornice growth is still tender for the time being. The thinner crossloaded features were more sensitive to human triggering today than the deeply loaded lee aspects.
Consider using SIMPLE or CHALLENGING TERRAIN with lower angle < 35 degree slopes and more supportive shapes.
Outlook:
The outlook is for Winter to finish off March. Snow 25 to 45 cm into Monday and into Tuesday 15cm (to 25 cm more if you are on the North Island), tapering off (maybe) for Wednesday 5 or less. It remains cool and mostly clear with FL dropping from 1000m to 600m. Winds ease Monday PM to West and back to S SW Light with a few gusts for Tuesday's system and lighter again from WNW Wednesday.