Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Valid Until: Wednesday Feb 10

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

With the higher amounts of new snow expect the danger rating in the alpine for the MYRA region to hit considerable on Wednesday

Below Treeline areas especially on the East slopes of the Island are becoming below threshold for avalanches.  This is not the case however further west as the snowpack deepens.

Confidence: Good.  Weather models in agreement this time......maybe.

Main Concerns:

• New storm snow instabilities

Weather:

A mix of cloudy weather with some sunny periods over the next 3 days.  Freezing levels will average around 1000m accompanied by strong SE winds.

Avalanche Activity:

No Natural activity has been observed

Snowpack:

Expect up to 10cms of snow over the next three days on the Eastern Slopes of the Island Alps and up to 25 or more on the Western slopes.  This new snow will come in with a lot of wind from the SE.  This new snow transported by wind will overly a new crop of surface hoar in sheltered areas.  Expect unstable conditions in the usual features such as lee or cross-loaded terrain.

Our deeper surface hoar layers are gaining strength and profiles are showing these layers to be gaining strength.  The possibility of ski triggering these deeper layers is still there in the right terrain feature such as a super weak zone, convexities, thin areas etc.

Terrain Discussion:

Windslab overlying our new grown surface hoar layer is the beast to look out for over the next few days.  Although not a lot of snow is in the forecast, wind transport will load up the lee features.  Caution is advised in avalanche terrain in the alpine and at treeline in sheltered lee features. Below treeline will require hiking boots in many areas!

Outlook:

Dribs and drabs of snow over the next few days then a nice big pacific low is due to hit us on Thursday.