Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Valid Until: Monday 16 January 2012 (9 PM)   Next update Monday January 16 2012

 Confidence:  Good.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - In the Alpine and exposed tree Line new Wind Slab exists in isolated pockets and may continue to form with light new snow and winds from the West to North. Expect new wind loading on SW, S, SE, E, and NE aspects.

Persistent Slab - At higher elevations and colder aspects, instabilities deeper in the snowpack (dating from mid November) could produce large avalanches with large triggers such as cornice falls, or from wind slab avalanches stepping down to the deeper weaknesses.

Weather:

The Island Alps saw little to no precipitation for the past two days. Winds were not much of a factor. Temps generally cooled off except for some day time heating on the 12th. The outlook  is for snow over night Friday and into Saturday giving 10cm to the east island and up to 20cm to the north and west island. Sunday will see flurries during the day with 5 cm or less and Monday lighter flurries on the east slopes. Freezing levels will be at sea level through the forecast period. Winds will be from the west and light to moderate on Saturday easing to northerly and light on Saturday night and Sunday. Sunday and into Monday the winds will pick up from to moderate from the north and north west. 

Snow Pack:

The island snowpack varies quite a bit from the east coast to the west and north island and is more complex in the alpine than many are accustomed to seeing on the island. Snow pack conditions described below may or may not apply exactly to the area that you are in so local investigation is important.

Across the Island and up to around tree line the snow pack has been soaked with rain which froze up into a thick firm crust. While shears and collapses exist below the crust in lower density dry snow, the strong crust is capping and rendering these layers unreactive except perhaps where the crust is thin at the highest elevations which it is found (tree line). In general this means conditions are much different up high and on cold aspects and that surface slabs could still be triggered and could step down in to this crust or at higher elevations to deeper layers all the way down to the November crust.

New snow will fall on widespread crusts at or below tree line.

Avalanche Activity:

No new avalanches have been observed.

Travel Advisory:

Watch the wind. If it picks up wind slab will develop quickly. Bonding of these new slabs to underlying crusts may not be good. Watch the Cold as with wind chill it will be cold by Island standards.

Caution is recommended regarding slipping and falling on hard icy slopes dusted with new snow...

Caution is advised in the Alpine and exposed Tree Line as wind slab is forming likely on NE E SE S SW aspects.

At the highest elevations be aware of old and new wind slabs on most aspects they could collapse or be be sensitive to human triggering . Be aware that there is the possibility of not only a wind slab avalanche but once started the wind slab may step down to weak layers deeper in the snow pack causing larger avalanches. 

Prepared by Niko Weis

Tickets go on sale for the Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin on Wednesday 11th. Don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary event with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.