Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Valid Until: Wednesday 17 March.

DANGER RATINGS (Make sure you understand the danger level meanings)

Confidence: Fair. It is difficult to predict timing and intensity of precipitation as well as freezing level fluctuations.

Main Concerns:

• New storm snow instabilities
• Widespread windslab
• Rain soaking causing sudden loading likely late Monday and early Tuesday

Weather:

The Island Alps have seen from about 15cm to 100cm of snow from Friday to Sunday with the highest amounts falling in the middle of the range followed by the east coast with the lesser amounts on the north island. This snow came with moderate to strong winds from pretty much every direction at different times with an emphasis on SW through S and SE to E. Freezing levels stayed between about 700 and 1000m.

The outlook is for a series of frontal systems to give us continued precipitation until a drying trend takes over on Wednesday. Expect from 30 to 100mm of water with the greater amounts forecast for the west coast, about half as much on the east coast and a third on the north island. Freezing levels will spike up over the tops of the island mountains late Monday/early Tuesday giving significant amounts of rain. Winds will be strong from the SW through SE through the precipitation.

Avalanche Activity:

Natural avalanches continued through the week end particularly in the locations receiving the most snow. While we expect natural activity to ease on Monday human triggered avalanches will remain probable. With increased precipitation (much of it coming as rain early Tuesday) we expect a renewed natural cycle.

Snowpack:

All of the snow of last week and this week end has fallen onto a crust which showed poor bonding in snow tests on the week end. This layer will produce deep fractures. Additionally the new snow has fallen at such a rate that as older instabilities are just starting to settle, new storm snow instabilities are constantly being created. Wind slab is wide spread.

Travel advisory:

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended for Monday and Tuesday. Stick to simple. low angled terrain and be aware of what is above you. With fluctuations in snow, wind and temperatures it is hard to predict when exactly the natural avalanche cycles will peak but they will and even when natural activity is seeing a lull, it will be easy for humans to trigger avalanches in many places.

Outlook:

A series of frontal systems to give us continued precipitation until a drying trend takes over on Wednesday. Expect from 30 to 100mm of water with the greater amounts forecast for the west coast, about half as much on the east coast and a third on the north island. Freezing levels will spike up over the tops of the island mountains late Monday/early Tuesday giving significant amounts of rain. Winds will be strong from the SW through SE through the precipitation.