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Sunday 22 January, 2012.
Tickets are on sale now for the Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin. The event sells out every year so don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary event with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.
Valid Until: Wednesday 25 January, 2012.
| Outlook | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine |
HIGH |
HIGH | HIGH |
| Treeline | HIGH |
HIGH |
HIGH |
| Below Treeline | CONSIDERABLE | CONSIDERABLE | CONSIDERABLE |
Confidence: Fair. Uncertainty about intensity of coming systems and freezing levels later in the forecast.
Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)
Storm Slab - With significant snowfall amounts and variations in temperature in the forecast, weaknesses will exist within the recent, current and forecast storm snow. Storm slab avalanches will be happening at all elevations and on all aspects.
Wind Slab - Strong to very strong winds have created widespread and touchy, deep wind slabs. Continued snow and strong winds will form yet more wind slabs at tree line and above and particularly from SE to NW aspects.
Weather:
Two storms, one on Friday and a second which started Sunday and continues at time of writing (Sunday afternoon) have delivered from 25cm to over a metre of snow to the Island Alps (least on the north island, most on the west coast). Freezing levels rose to around 1400m during the first storm with strong winds mostly from the SW. The second storm has seen cooler temperatures so far with freezing levels reaching no more than about 300m and very strong winds from the SE shifting to SW. The outlook is as follows:
Remainder of Sunday: 5-15cm more snow. Strong SW winds. Freeing level to around 800m.
Monday: 20 to 40cm snow. Strong SW winds. Freezing level around 900m.
Tuesday: 30 to 60 cm snow. Strong SW winds. Freezing levels to 1500m.
Wednesday: 20 to 25 cm snow. Strong SW winds. Freezing levels to 1500m
Snow Pack:
Wind slab has formed and continues to form in the alpine and at
tree line from strong winds mostly from SE to SW. These slabs will be deep and triggering naturally. Weaknesses deeper in the snow pack (surface hoar in places, thin crust at tree line and lower density, colder snow from earlier in the first storm Friday) will have been the failure plane in avalanches over the week end and will continue to fail and/or be pressed down by the coming load.The mid and lower pack are strong.
Avalanche Activity:
A natural avalanche cycle is certain to be occurring.
Travel Advisory:
When hazard is this high the best way to avoid being caught in an avalanche is to stay out of avalanche terrain. Stick to low angled and well forested areas and stay away from wind effected areas. Avoid steep, open terrain below tree line. Be aware of hazard overhead from avalanche paths and cornices.
Prepared by Jan Neuspiel
