Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

There are a few tickets still available for the  Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin. The event will sell out this year again so don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary party with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.

Valid Until: Saturday 28 January, 2012.

Confidence:  Fair. Uncertainty about intensity, timing and freezing levels of coming system. If this system comes in sooner on Saturday, Hazard levels will rise earlier.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - Strong to very strong winds have created widespread and touchy wind slabs mostly on east through north west aspects. These slabs remain sensitive to human trigger in the alpine and at tree line. With wind changing direction to west and north west on Thursday new wind slab may form in the alpine in particular on east through south east aspects.

Storm Slab - Variations in temperature during the storms have resulted in weaknesses within the storm snow which remain triggerable by humans on all aspects at tree line and in the alpine.

Cornices - Great quantities of snow and very strong winds have built cornices which are a hazard in their own right but can also act as very heavy triggers for large avalanches.

Weather:

The island Alps received from 125 to 140cm of snow since Sunday. The snow came with winds that exceeded 100kph at times and came from the SW through to SE. Freezing levels varied but stayed mostly at or below 1000m for the most part except for a rise to tree line for about four hours on Tuesday evening. The outlook is as follows:

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of snow in some areas, moderate northwest and west winds, freezing level surface to 600m.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud, 5 to 15cm of snow (greatest amounts west island), moderate westerly winds, freezing levels surface to 900m.

Saturday: Our next system approaches starting later in the day and giving 20-40cm of snow by midnight (greater amounts on west island), moderate to strong SW winds, freezing level up to 900m.

Snow Pack:

Great quantities of new snow and very strong winds have created wind slab mostly on East through to Northwest aspects. Variations in temperature during the storms have created weaknesses within the storm snow. These remained touchy in tests on Wednesday delivering easy results. A crust was formed when freezing levels rose to tree line on Tuesday evening.  At 1000m this crust supports skis but not a foot. At tree line the crust is less than 1cm thick and it does not reach to the alpine. There is 5-10cm of new snow on top of this crust. The mid and lower pack are strong.

Avalanche Activity:

A widespread natural avalanche cycle during the storm with avalanches to size two observed.

Travel Advisory:

In the alpine and at tree line be aware of deep and stiff winds slabs which are sensitive to the load of a human. Stay out of wind affected areas and be aware of what is above you. Winds shifting to west and north west on Thursday will also create new wind slab on east through south east aspects. Also be aware that even where there is not wind slab, instabilities exist withing the storm snow which remain triggerable by humans. Sticking to lower angled and supported terrain in the alpine and at tree line is recommended. Be aware that cornices are a hazard in their own right but can also act as very heavy triggers for large avalanches. Cornice failure is very difficult to predict. Give them a wide berth. Watch the approach of our next system on Saturday. If it arrives earlier than forecast hazard levels will rise sooner.

Prepared by Jan Neuspiel