Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Tickets are on sale now for the Fourth Annual Party for the Bulletin. Don't miss your chance to attend this now legendary event with live music, silent auction and lots of fun. This is the thing that keeps your source of avalanche info going so come out in support. It all happens at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland on Friday 27 January. More info here.

Valid Until: Thursday 19 January 2012.

Confidence:  Good.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - In the Alpine and exposed tree Line winds will rise to moderate and even strong mostly from the west forming wind slabs from SE through to NW aspects.

Persistent Slab - At higher elevations in the alpine on colder aspects, instabilities deeper in the snowpack could produce large avalanches with large triggers such as cornice falls if they hit just the right spot in a shallow snow pack area.

Weather:
Cold temperatures and little snow have been the main features in our weather. From 7 to 20cm of snow have fallen since Friday. Temperatures at tree line have ranged from around -5 early in the period to -15. Winds have been mostly light and shifted from southerly early in the period to north westerly for the remainder. The outlook is for continued cold arctic air and little or no precipitation. Winds will be from moderate to strong and generally from the west with wind strength increasing significantly as you go up in altitude.

Snow Pack:
The island snowpack varies quite a bit from the east coast to the west and north island and is more complex in the alpine than many are accustomed to seeing on the island. Snow pack conditions described below may or may not apply exactly to the area that you are in so local investigation is important.
There is wind slab at tree line and alpine mostly from southerly winds earlier in the week end which was touchy to human triggers a few days back but is more stubborn now. New slabs will form with forecast winds. Surface hoar has been forming at all elevations and on all aspects. Increasing winds will likely knock this down but it could preserve in areas sheltered from the wind and could be buried as we get new snow. The crust which formed from rain one week ago is thin at tree line elevations and collapses easily on loose dry snow making it a possible failure layer at tree line elevations with load. The mid pack is solid. Persistent layers deeper in the snow pack are delivering hard, if any, results and are likely only a concern in areas of thin snow pack in the alpine and with big loads such as cornice fall. The island snowpack is at around 1.5 metres at tree line and likely considerably more on the west coast though we do not have recent measurements.

Avalanche Activity:
No new natural avalanches have been observed. A few small skier cut wind slabs were observed on Saturday.

Travel Advisory:
In the alpine and at tree line watch for the effects of wind and avoid wind loaded areas. Test small slabs on safe, small features to gauge how they react to load. Give cornices a wide berth.

Prepared by Jan Neuspiel